A friend from the USA sent me this essay on why he is sure that Clonton will win the presidential elections coming November.
Dutch/Nederlands: een vriend in de Verenigde Staten stuurde mij dit essay waarin hij uitlegt waarom hij er zeker van is dat Hillary Clinton de presidentsverkiezingen in november zal winnen.
TRUMP is a Fool, and will LOSE
Stories claiming the opposite are motivated by the desire to assure
that Clinton voters actually vote in November.
Written by a longtime student of US Politics
By the way, I consider myself to be a moderate leftist on many issues, and I have a degree from UCLA on the workings of US politics.
You center-left people in other nations who keep fearing Donald Trump simply do not know the following fact.:
The U.S. media are themselves left of center, and even conservative Fox News is holding its nose with regard to Trump. The other six Republican candidates actually got as many or more votes collectively in the Republican primaries than Trump.
The main reason that Trump won the nomination is because his gaffes and 'statements' and his outlandish demeanor were so "off the wall" and "out of the box" that the liberal media were so happy with the advertising ratings, that they portrayed Trump more concentratedly than all the others combined.
Trump's views on actual lawmaking (the House and Senate really make 98% of the federal laws) are less (Trump's views, that is) ...less right wing than, for example, Ted Cruz' would be. Trumpists constitute no more than half (probably 35% in my estimation) of the Republicans, and those Trumpists do not realize this significant fact.
The crazy ridiculous stuff Trump STILL NOW repeats (almost in the fashion of that Chaplin narrow mustache character from the movies) is only for effect. And even if Trump were to win (he will NOT), he would be unable to implement any such stuff. His social ideas would be voted down by Congress.
The foreign policy tendencies other than actually sending troops would be moderated by the House and Senate and if he even tried to go beyond Bush-Obama in that area, he might get impeached--I am almost positive--since Congress would be more Democrat than under Obama.
When our country has to get rid of a politician before his time is up, we do it and there's never going to be much trouble about it (viz. Nixon-to-Ford). Our Constitution makes any transition smooth.
So I am saying that, whereas I am indeed surprised that Trump has not toned down his ridiculous extremism-ridden mouth, he simply can not do most of what his foolish Trumpist "believers" are hearing. America is still and always will be a decent place, and has no need for an "I'll make America great again!" fool.
It is going to be Mrs. Clinton. She will be nearly as decent and good--despite here very real problems with judgment on minor things in the past--as Pres. Obama has been. That's in my view, pretty decent!
I don't think Trump entered the primaries thinking it was anything more than a publicity stunt. Now he is stuck with it. (I repeat for emphasis that the media LOVED his outlandishness and fed him to that one part of the public that either is stupid or likes to see the results of a car crash.)
The more reasonable candidates did not expect him to win, and once the media charade began, they had no idea how to respond successfully.
I would have preferred Sanders or Mrs. Clinton, or Kasich or even Rubio or Christie. Sanders would have lost to any Republican but Trump, and Sanders had no idea about how to work with other countries, or especially how to pay for his promises with public money.
Kasich or Rubio would probably have beaten Mrs. Clinton, for she's a flawed candidate. I actually believe that she will be a decent President.
I bet Trump is dreading the idea of how tough a job and spiritually killing four years, that winning would bring on for him. I wonder if, down deep, he is dumb enough to actually believe he has any chance to beat Mrs. Clinton.
Now then, why am I so sure--DESPITE what US and overseas media are portraying--that Hillary will defeat Trump by 58% to 36% with as much as 6% going to minor parties!!!!! Why indeed?
Trump has taken the black population as a loss, and he is right, he will lose 92% of their votes--and they WILL vote, and will constitute about 7% of those citizens who actually do vote.
Trump should notice that G. W. Bush only got around 20% of the Spanish-speaking voters, Trump will get less than 15% (those will be mostly wealthy ex-Cubans). Those Latino voters WILL vote!
Trump fails to notice that G. W. Bush did not get even 50% of the female vote either time. Donald (incredibly to me) has so alienated women that I expect him to lose the female vote by about 70% to 30%. A great percentage of vote-eligible female voters WILL vote!
Asians (most have either Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, East Indian or Japanese ethnic roots) will definitely favor Mrs. Clinton, I expect by a margin of about 60% to 40%. The only ethnic group that will exceed 40% for Trump may be Filipinos, as they are quite religious, speak perfect English, and tend to be wealthy. East Indians tend to be moderate here, and make up their own minds. Trump will not even approach 45% with East Indians.
People of all stripes and political leanings who consider themselves Atheists or Agnostics will surely favor Mrs. Clinton as the lesser of two unfortunate choices, probably by 70% to under 30% for Trump. They WILL vote.
Green voters will favor Mrs. Clinton (even though she is far from a full Greenie), by 80% to under 20%. They, too, WILL vote.
This leaves only whatever proportion of white males who consider themselves fairly religious and/or conservative. Keep in mind that I myself do not believe Trump to be either a religious man nor a strict conservative on any issue--not even on foreign policy. So those males voting for Trump (if he somehow won, which he will not) would soon become surprised and dismayed.
G. W. Bush only got about 58% and 56% of ALL male voters in '00 and '04. Trump will get less than either of those percentages.
Aside from those voter blocks I've discussed, remember that the US electorate changes each four years in two ways:
1. In America, we do not HAVE TO vote at all. Every election has from 20% to 40% of those who are eligible, that actually forget to, or decide not to turn in ballots. This fluctuates from time to time, and a major factor is how volatile and HOW CLOSE the election seems to be foreseen. The media are the ONLY way the volatility and closeness can be gauged by a voter. This "participation fluctuation" will be very significant when I finish this essay--for it bears influence on why the media are pushing "Horrors, Trump might WIN!!!" The media (most of them, anyway) WANT to assure a Clinton victory--and a high turnout from the Center and the Left helps guarantee that.
2. Every four years, unfortunately, a large number of previous voters have died. Probably, the statistics would portray them as proportionately right-of-center, when alive.
And also, every year, a large number of newly eligible voters are added to the voter rolls. These are new citizens plus newly 18 young folks. These new voters WILL vote!
And the young are, in my expectation, neither for Trump nor Clinton, but I think they favored Bernie Sanders quite significantly. The majority of the under-24 voters are liberal and very electronic-media and smartphone and internet savvy.
They WILL vote, although they will need to collectively hold their noses, for they will be told, somewhat validly, that as a liberal, she will prove less liberal than Pres. Obama. But the new voters of both sexes will vote against Trump by at least 60% to 30% (with maybe 10% voting for minor parties).
Even Barack Obama has disappointed the segment of extremely progressive (and imho, naïve) voters who somehow dreamed he would have success in implementing all of their wishes. How could he have done so? (Much of that was due to the Republicans' majorities in both legislative houses.)
But Pres. Obama himself was hampered a bit by his fairly naïve and misguided choices of cabinet and high-ranking, sub-cabinet minions. He also was personally a bit more pragmatic, practical and centrist than his wildest dreamer supporters on the left. He was a fine President in my opinion, and deserved the two terms.
Conclusion, notice the times above, where I have used CAPITAL letters for the word, "WILL."
The great majority of the eligible voters most likely to actually vote all prefer Clinton, pimples notwithstanding; they'll be joined by those who find Trump abhorrent. Trump will get the votes of the Trumpists we see on TV, and not much more.
The portion of the eligible voters who MAY NOT VOTE, at all, for President are the moderate Republicans who realize that Trumps accession to the general election is certainly the worst thing that has happened to their political party since Coolidge.
Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Mario Rubio boycotted the convention entirely. These moderates are smart enough to know that Trump is such a poor candidate that the Democrats will take over the Senate majority and even gain a bit closer to 50% of the House--and they will still abstain in significant numbers. The phenomenon is, sadly, a threat to our unofficial and de facto two-party history.
So, what you will hear and read between now and November is the product of a sensation-seeking and advert-ratings seeking media who are also more than slightly driven by a liberal bias that wants to "scare" left and liberal voters with the (ludicrous) possibility that Donald Trump can have any reasonable hope of winning the general election by popular vote.
Furthermore, I hope that any interested observers from the other Continents remember that an "Electoral College" (look that up) is the actual voting group. That is wherein California has 55 votes and Wyoming has 3, for example.
Mrs. Clinton only needs 14 of the 50 States to win. The closest "swing the election" states are Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I predict that Clinton will win all four of those. The "WILL" voters WILL want to vote, and they will be further excited and worried by the media's false stories about scenarios that point to a Trump victory.
I am not sorry this is so long. My friends have my okay to share this (without my name of course) on any forum wherein there's a fear that America will elect Donald Trump.
Electoral college votes, by State:
Electoral_College_(United_ States)#/media/File: ElectoralCollege2012.svg